There’s an idiom “three feet from gold” which was born from an urban legend about a California Gold Rush miner who sold his claim after coming up short on a dig, not realizing that a treasure trove awaited in just a few more strikes of the shovel. The individual who purchased the land found a large vein of gold in the very first day of digging, precisely three feet from where the previous miner abandoned the claim. News of the event spread like wildfire, and it quickly became a learning analogy to keep people from giving up on a dream because that one thing to put them over the edge to success (an investment, partnership, et cetera) could be right around the corner. The reminder to persevere was made famous in motivational speaking circles, namely in relation to the principles of Napoleon Hill’s book; Think and Grow Rich.
While it’s an excellent lesson to be applied to worthy goal aspirations, it has unfortunately been manipulated to encourage gamblers to keep gambling. In 2023, a meme circulated around social networks titled “90% of Gamblers Quit Before They Win Big”, with a variety of images to accompany the supposed statistic:
Source: Reddit
While the meme is no longer on regular rotation on TikTok, it has been cemented in the psyche of tens of thousands of American gamblers who seek any rationalization to keep digging. Have a look at current (2025) online search volume for semantically related expressions:
Source: Google Keyword Research Tool
These searches presumably come from gamblers who hope to verify the statistic, which is exactly why we created an article (the one you’re now reading) to intervene before the fallacy gains further momentum. Let’s review.
How the “90% of Gamblers Quit Before They Win Big” Claim is a False Statistic with Consequences for Problem Gamblers
Not Supported by Any Data Whatsoever
The expression and accompanying 90% statistic is 100% fabricated. The idea simply originated from a social media meme, and nothing more. There are no studies or reliable data to draw from. The only method of proving any sort of data of this nature, would be to track on-premises and online slot machines to test whether or not the next pull of the one-armed bandit (after a player ceased a session) resulted in an instant jackpot. And that may only occur if there were complete assurances that slots results are entirely random, although that in itself would make such a test fruitless. And if not entirely random (which is what many speculate) further assurances would need to be made that a studied machine would not reset between when one player ceased and another followed. It’s ultimately an untestable theory.
The Gamblers Ruin Formula Says Otherwise
There is one testable theory that relates to the odds of winning in the long run as a gambler, which is known as the Gamblers Ruin Formula. As the name infers, the formula calculates the probability of a gambler eventually going broke when playing a series of games with a specific win probability and target amount. We go into greater detail about the Gamblers Ruin Formula in an article titled Sports Betting as a Side Hustle is a Dangerous Myth which you can read more on by clicking here. Otherwise, simply reference the following graph below. It tells you everything you need to know about where continued gambling behavior leads for the vast majority of Americans:
A Cognitive Distortion Common to Problem Gamblers
Cognitive distortions are irrational or faulty thought patterns and beliefs that can influence a person’s behavior. It is a common phenomenon among problem gamblers. Buying into the falsehood that 90 percent of gamblers quit before they win big is absolutely one of these cognitive distortions, along with six of the most common ones which you can reference right here.
Remember, You Were Thinking About Quitting
There’s an underlying issue within the intent of anyone searching for insight into whether or not there is truth to the statement that headlines today’s feature. It’s the part about quitting. As someone searching for this information, you may be on the verge of quitting, or are seriously considering quitting, only to be sidetracked by the delusional myth. Why were you (or are you) thinking of abstaining? Because like millions of other Americans, you may recognize that you exhibit signs and symptoms of problematic gambling behavior (view here). And just like those millions of others, your manner of thinking as become compromised. As a result, your brain is searching for ways to trick you back into gambling’s embrace so that it can get another hit of dopamine. The good news, is that you are reading this, and can move past the tricks that gambling lore plays on the psyche of vulnerable persons.
If you were looking to validate the claim that 90 percent of gamblers quit before they win big, you now know it is an outright lie. For the rest, please share this with anyone who has been mislead to think that they should keep casino gaming or sports betting until they hit that big payday.
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